Predictions Wrong on Both Counts
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June 12, 2007
By Tom DeWeese
Global warming alarmists are a clever bunch. They have very carefully changed the issue from "global warming" to "climate change." Now any change in weather, be it mild winters or cool summers can be attributed to "climate change." Whatever the weather, the news is very bad.
One claim threatens massive storms thrashing our communities. Such a threat was an easy sell in 2005 as Katrina was blamed for nearly destroying New Orleans in a hurricane season that seemed without end. Surely it could not be denied that climate change Armageddon was upon us.
To make the point, in September, 2005, Bjorn Carey, Staff Writer for the website, LiveScience.com reported that the "Increase in major hurricanes (was) linked to warmer seas." Said Carey, "the number of severe hurricanes has doubled worldwide even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped over the last 35 years." Carey continued, "The increase in major storms like Katrina coincides with a global increase of sea surface temperatures, which scientists say is an effect of global warming."
Based on such "scientific" studies and having just experienced such a horrific hurricane season, the world braced for the 2006 season. Nothing happened. No severe storms. All was quiet on the oceanfront.
Were the alarmists wrong? Could the predictions be mistaken? Was this the end of the hysteria? Of course not. With huge monetary rewards and government grants at stake, the climate change artists knew just what to do – switch gears. No muss. No fuss.
In April, 2007, Andrea Thompson, another staff writer for the same website, LiveScience.com wrote, "Global Warming could hinder hurricanes." Said Thompson, "Global Warming might not fuel more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic after all. Despite increasing ocean temperatures that feed monster storms, climate change may also be ramping up the winds that choke off a hurricane’s development…" Nothing, not even facts stop the dedicated climate change alarmist.
The truth is, global warming and climate change have nothing to do with how severe the hurricane season is. Those who have documented hurricanes since we had the tools to study them report that how severe the season is depends on a well-known natural phenomenon which comes in two parts – El Nino and its evil sister La Nina.
Every few years certain elements in the weather cause the oceans to either warm or cool. An El Nino is a warming of the water temperature and actually tends to produce a milder storm season. An El Nino is the reason for last year’s mild hurricane season. A La Nina, on the other hand, is a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region causing ocean temperatures to cool resulting in greater storm activity and velocity.
Storm watchers issued a prediction that the 2007 hurricane season will possibly be a severe one because indications are a La Nina is forming. Forecasters admit they don’t know how severe the weather will be because they don’t know how strong the La Nina is. However, it typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat for the southern U.S. and a milder spring and summer in the north. Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA Administrator, the federal agency responsible for hurricane watching further explained, "The central plains of the United States tend to be drier in the fall during La Nina, while the Pacific Northwest tends to be wetter in the late fall and early winter.
So this year, if your region is experiencing unusually dry weather, perhaps a drought, or a cool spring, or a mild summer, rest assured it’s completely natural and has nothing to do with the wit or wisdom of Al Gore. He’s just trying to scare you into giving him another Oscar. Don’t be fooled. It’s not "climate change," it’s just weather.
© 2007 American Policy Center (http://www.americanpolicy.org/)
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